Price Analysis

Will 2019 BTC trend repeat itself on Halving Day?

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Bitcoin, at the time of writing this analysis, was trading below $9k around $8.6k and has drawn a bearish candlestick and retested 10-day long support at $8.1k. With less than 10 hours (according to IST time) left for the 3rd Bitcoin Halving, BTC price has not shown any rebound after a massive pullback in Sunday’s trading session.

Just when the people were expecting the price of Bitcoin to rise above $10k at the time of halving or have marginal changes after a fall below $10k, the king of cryptos nosedived from $9.5k to $8.1k in just minutes yesterday. Moreover, there has been no quick rebound over the past 24 hours until the press time. Also, just when the price steeply plummeted over in less than an hour, Coinbase—the global platform for trading in cryptocurrencies, seemed to seek some warning bell and for the 2nd time in less than 30 days, the global platform drained under pressure.

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Not only this, little did we know that the block reward halving can lead to a spike in transaction fees and has already hit a 9-month high average transaction fee, according to BitInfoCharts, which is also a concern for the investors.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#1y

Now, after these technical issues, if we look at the daily price chart of Bitcoin against the US Dollar, we see that the steep candlestick dip on the bygone weekend is reminiscent of the April 2019 trend when the price of the coin dipped to $4.9k before taking off to breach around $14k. With a similar trend observed and as per the notion of many analysts, this time, the BTC trend is not similar to the one seen in 2012 and 2016 and is expected to have a bullish crossover after the halving.

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BTC/USD Chart By TradingView

Looking at the above daily movement in the previous year, as highlighted, the price of Bitcoin experienced a steep bullish candlestick aversion. It dipped below $5k just to reclaim the winning momentum after a brief consolidation. And within three months, BTC was near to $14k with a 52-week high mark on the price scale.

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Now, when we see the current year’s chart, quite a similar trend is seen repeating while we retain support from the 200-day and 50-day MA on the daily chart. Moreover, with a change of trend prior to this time’s halving, it takes us straight to the belief that bullish is the nature of Bitcoin, and it cannot refrain from retesting the same soon.

Additionally, if compared, Bitcoin is now known and adopted by masses across the globe, which was missing or comparatively lesser during the previous two halving and the investors are the major influencers of the price as per the economic rule of demand and supply.

Undoubtedly, people tend to believe what they see, and we see that Bitcoin Value is on a bear run, yet the daily RSI is around 50 and holds no trading extremities. Yet just as it took minutes to lose around 15%, it will not take time for the bears to become even stronger and drop the RSI from 50 to 30 in minutes, has been a matter of concern for the newbies.

But, a dip in the price has always been an opportunity for the loyalists to invest even more.

Mehak Punjabi

Mehak Punjabi is a post graduate in MBA with specialization in Finance and has joined CryptonewsZ with a skill building view in the world of cryptocurrency and blockchain. She is dynamic and a quick learner with a hold on financial analysis.

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