Key Highlights:
- Around $2.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire on November 13, with BTC accounting for $2.48 billion and ETH for $300 million.
- Bitcoin has fallen below its $76,000 max pain level, while Ethereum is trading below its $2,200 level.
- Rising short-term implied volatility and increased demand for put options point to defensive positioning ahead of expiry.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching a major weekly options expiry, with approximately $1.8 billion in contracts scheduled to expire on Friday, November 13th. The expiry comes as the crypto market faces renewed selling pressure following a combination of negative deployments, including the aftermath of an earlier Binance hack, a period of net outflows from spot exchange-traded funds, and U.S. inflation data that came in above expectations.
Bitcoin has moved below the $76,000 max pain level, while Ethereum has also slipped beneath its $2,200 mark. Options positioning suggests that traders are becoming increasingly aware, particularly in the short term, as they evaluate the probability of further price fall.
What Do Bitcoin and Ethereum Data Indicate Ahead of the Expiry?
The November 13 expiry includes approximately 34,000 Bitcoin options contracts, with a put/call ratio (PCR) of 0.52, a max pain price of $76,000 and a notional value of $2.48 billion. Ethereum has around 148,000 contracts expiring, with a PCR of 1.55, a max pain level of $2,200 and a notional value of $300 million. Bitcoin has struggled to recover after losing the $80,000 support level. Its price briefly declined to the $72,700-$73,300 range during the middle of the week before rebounding above $74,000. However, it remains below the $76,000 max pain level.
This move has increased pressure on market makers holding positions established at higher price levels, as they may need to adjust their hedges ahead of expiry. On Deribit, the largest open interest for the November 13 expiry is concentrated in $81,000 call options. With Bitcoin trading well below that strike, the likelihood of these options expiring out of the money has increased, weakening near-term bullish positioning. The options data also shows a difference between outstanding positions and recent trading activity.
Bitcoin’s expiry PCR of 0.52 indicates that calls still dominate its open interest. However, its trading-volume PCR climbed to around 1.64 over the past 24 hours. This suggests that traders have increasingly turned to put options as Bitcoin fell below $75,000, either to hedge existing holdings or gain exposure to further downside. Ethereum’s positioning appears more defensive. Its spot price has declined to the 2,050–2,130 range, below the $2,200 max pain level. The expiry PCR of 1.55 indicates a greater concentration of put options than calls. Put protection is also concentrated between the $2,100 and $2,300 strike prices, potentially limiting the scope for a recovery before expiry.
What Do Instability Indicators Suggest About the Crypto Market’s Next Move?
Bitcoin’s implied volatility structure has turned inverted, reflecting greater expectations of price movement in the near term than over longer periods. Its one-week at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) has risen above 39.2%, while the one-month ATM IV remains relatively stable at around 38%. The increase in short-term instability follows the newest microeconomic data and Bitcoin’s breakdown below key price levels. Meanwhile, seven-day realized volatility has climbed above 43%, suggesting that actual price fluctuations have risen significantly.
Other options indicators point to continued caution. The 25-delta skew remains negative, meaning put options are trading at a higher premium than call options. The gamma exposure (GEX) distribution is also bearish, although positions remain spread across multiple strike prices. While the $72,000 to $74,000 range appears to offer some buying support, the current positioning does not indicate a clear consensus among traders on whether the market has reached an attractive level for buying the dip.
Ahead of expiry, traders are watching the $74,080 to $78,900 range around Bitcoin’s $76,000 max pain level. This area could act as a price-gravity zone as Friday’s settlement approaches. However, with the $80,000 resistance level unlikely to be reclaimed quickly under current market conditions, the market may need more time to consolidate and establish a stronger base.
The trading strategy highlighted in the market analysis favors downside protection during potential rebounds. Late-November options expiring on November 27, along with medium-and longer-term options, are described as relatively inexpensive compared with near-term instability. Buying monthly out-of-the-money put options during price recoveries or using bear put spreads could therefore offer a way to hedge against further plunges. These strategies carry risks, including the possibility of losses if prices recover or instability changes.
