- The odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 slip to 50/50 on Polymarket.
- The ongoing stablecoin debates and markup uncertainty cast a shadow over the passage.
- Experts warn that if the crypto bill is not passed soon, it will lose momentum amid elections.
The crypto regulation in the US is facing rising uncertainty as the much-awaited CLARITY Act is poised to face further delays. After gaining bipartisan support in the House, the crypto bill is now entering a sensitive phase in the Senate. As the stablecoin yield debate continues to escalate, the initial momentum of the bill appears to fade, with the path forward becoming less clear.
As the May deadline nears, analysts and experts warn that delays could prove costly. Adding more to this uncertainty, the odds of the crypto bill passing in 2026 have now fallen to roughly 50/50. Thus, any further slowdown in April or May could significantly increase the risk of it stalling before the midterms.
CLARITY Act Passage Odds Fall to 50/50
The crypto industry is largely anticipating the passage of the CLARITY Act by the end of May 2026. This optimism is mainly driven by the recent comments from Senator Bernie Moreno, who stated, “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May.”
However, soon this optimism faded. This is because the odds of the CLARITY Act passage in 2026 fell to 50/50 on Polymarket. In addition, Polymarket shared on X that the crypto bill will not be passed this year. The post read, “The ‘Clarity Act’ is no longer projected to be signed into law this year.”
As of now, the odds are at 44%, down by a massive 21%. This indicates that the community is becoming less hopeful about the crypto bill’s passage in 2026. This is mainly due to the ongoing stablecoin debate and the uncertainty surrounding the markup meeting timeline.
Data from Kalshi also reflects a similar idea. The platform estimates only a 15% chance that the crypto bill will pass before July. There is about 37% chance of it passing before August. These numbers highlight the less possibility of the CLARITY Act’s near-term progress in the Senate.
Crypto Bill Enters Critical Phase, But Senate Delays Mount
Amid this uncertain backdrop, political economist Seth shared an X post, unveiling the CLARITY Act’s critical phase. But he added that the chances of the market structure bill becoming law look increasingly uncertain.
Although the crypto bill has already cleared the House with Bipartisan support, its progress in the Senate has been slower than expected. The lawmakers continue to sort out their concerns, and the absence of any specific timeline is only contributing to the ambiguity surrounding its passage.
Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote,
“We have bipartisan support. We have the president’s support. This is our moment. Let’s get this done.”
For Seth, time seems to be of utmost importance. As he observed, if the Senate does not act fast enough regarding the crypto bill, chances are it will be discussed later, probably in May. In that case, there is a strong possibility that it will become increasingly difficult for the bill to remain a top legislative priority prior to the midterm elections.
The delay in the markup hearing remains a major hurdle in the progress of the CLARITY. The markup meeting, which was initially scheduled for early April, is now facing uncertainty in its timeline. The longer the markup hearing is extended, the longer the crypto bill will be delayed.
