Ethereum Price Eyes Breakout as Exchange Supply Hits 2016 Lows

• The Ethereum price is just 6.5% away from challenge range resistance at $2,140 level.
• ETH reserves on centralized exchanges dropped to nearly 16 million coins, a multi-year low last seen around 2016.
• The momentum indicator ADX reverted to 40% suggesting a gradual decline in market’s bearish momentum.

ETH, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, bounced over 6% during Monday’s market despite geopolitical tension including Iran, Israel, and U.S. While the weekend volatility temporarily pushed Ethereum price to $1,840 low, the coin price recorded above $2,000, signaling market strong resilience. The buying pressure can be attributed to renewed inflow in spot ETH ETFs and steady decline of Ether available on exchange.

Ethereum Price Surges as Spot ETF Inflows Turn Positive After 5 Weeks

On Monday, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a notable surge in buying pressure, which pushed its market cap to $2.36 trillion. Simultaneously, the pioneer cryptocurrency Bitcoin bounced 6% to reach $70,000 while the Ethereum price bounced roughly 4.5% and reached $2,030.

However, Ether price gained additional momentum as spot ETFs turned positive after five weeks of consecutive outflow. According to Sosovalue, the U.S.-based spot ETFs experienced a $80.46 million, accentuating a surge in demand from institutional players.

In addition, Ethereum holdings among centralized trading platforms dropped to about 16 million coins-the lowest level in several years – not seen since around 2016. This is a large decline from 23 million in 2023, even if the asset’s market value has fallen sharply and lately traded at around $1,900-$2,000 amid general weakness in the market.

These exchange balances reflect the amount of supply that is readily available for trading and potential sales. A prolonged decline indicates low selling power

The drop has been sustained throughout periods of price weakness with outflows continuing into early 2026. Rather than mass exits in times of downturn, the movement is about conscious transfers elsewhere – mainly into staking protocols that lock up funds in exchange for network security purposes, transfer to cold storage, or for participation in decentralized applications.

Combined with staking participation, the decline in exchange supply hints at slowly shrinking the effective circulating supply available for immediate market activity. 

ETH Price Coiling In a Narrow Range Before Its Next Leap

In the last 72% hours, the Ethereum price showed a notable rebound from $1,835 to $2,031, registering a 10.4% surge. Consequently, the ETH’s market cap bounced to $245.2 million.

This upswing signals the price sustainability above the $1,800 mark but also the continuation of ongoing consolidation between this support and $2,140. For over three weeks, the Ethereum price has been wavering within this range, amid the broader market FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt). 

If the buying pressure persists, the ETH could breach the overhead resistance of $2,140 and bolster further growth in price, according to our Ethereum price forecast. The post-breakout rally could push the asset 22% up to challenge the next significant resistance at $2,623.

On the other hand, if sellers continue to defend the overhead resistance, the coin price would continue prolonged consolidation within this tight range.