- The Bitcoin price is poised for 9.8% recovery before channeling the resistance trendline of Inverted flag pattern.
- Derivatives data highlights stronger participation from retail traders in this recovery.
- BTC’s performance during the previous bear cycle indicates that its price often bottomed after a 70-80% crash from its latest all-time high.
The pioneer cryptocurrency Bitcoin jumped over 2% on Tuesday to reach the $68,000 mark. The surge aligns with the relief rally in broader markets as Iran shows willingness to de-escalate the ongoing conflict with the U.S. However, the buying is fueled by retail traders expectations while large investors bet on prolonged correction ahead. The ongoing data also highlights the risk of further downtrend depending on Bitcoin price behaviour during past cycles.
Retail Drives BTC Surge While Whales Bet on Downside
Last weekend, the Bitcoin price rebounded from $65,000 support to currently trade at $67,800, registering a gain of 5.5%. The buying pressure gained traction amid wind down of the middle east war following the statement of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s suggesting that Tehran is willing to wind down the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
A similar momentum is spread across the broader market as its surge 1.75% to currently hold a market cap of $2.34 trillion.
However, the derivatives market data shows that the surge is largely driven by retail participants while whales remain cautious. According to shared analysis by Alphracta founder Joao Wedson, the large holders have ramped up commitments to downward price bets in recent months according to the positioning gap metric.
Meanwhile, the everyday trader has taken a different approach to build their exposure to upward moves instead.
This pattern indicates that retailers are seeking boundless growth possibilities in this asset, while whales remain display stepped-up restraint. Historically, such a move has conceded with renewed selling pressure in the market and risk of prolonged correction.
In addition, BTC’s price performance during recent cycles also shows a risk of major downswing ahead. As of now, Bitcoin price is trading 46% down from its last all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
However, past major cycle lows only took shape after the asset had fallen between 70% and 80% from its peak values. If history repeats, the coin price could plunge to $48,000 to $52,000 market by the 3rd quarter.
Inverted Flag Pattern Drives A Temporary Recovery In Bitcoin Price
In the last two months, the Bitcoin price has showcased a slow yet steady recovery trend from $59,900 to $68,000 in the last chart. Interestingly, this upswing showed a series of higher high and higher low formations, resonating strictly within the formation of an inverted flag pattern.
A long-downsloping trendline followed by a relief rally with two ascending slopes creates this pattern and is known to renew the market selling pressure. A potential breakdown below the pattern’s bottom trendline will accelerate the bearish momentum and drag BTC to next significant support at $56,000, followed by $50,000.
On the contrary, if buyers manage to breach the pattern’s resistance trendline at $75,000, the bearish pattern will get invalidated.
